The Arrow Is Flown

a Tristan Baier web log

Demographic Winter: The Decline Of the Human Family

One of the most ominous events of modern history is quietly unfolding.  Social scientists and economists agree – we are headed toward a demographic winter which threatens to have catastrophic social and economic consequences.

Demographic Winter  draws upon experts from all around the world – demographers, economists, sociologists, psychologists, civic and religious leaders.  Together, they reveal the dangers facing society and the world’s economies, dangers far more imminent than global warming and at least as severe.

First, the film explores how what we thought produced actions that planted the seeds of decline, producing unexpected consequences.

Then, it asks the question “Why did fertility decline?” The film’s experts explore sociological catalysts for decline including the paradox that prosperity almost always accompanies fertility decline.

We have entered a new phase of modern history – one that we desperately need to understand.

Is there hope?  The film finally asks this question, exploring how some countries, having recognized their precarious future, have begun instituting baby bounties, by cash award and by tax incentives, encouraging couples to have children, and have begun instituting family friendly and family strengthening policies in their countries.

The film also recognizes the reality that popular culture, while having contributed to the problem will have to be engaged in contributing to the solutions.  This will mean educating our popular assumptions with the reality that we have been wrong in many of our ideas and giving way to new models of population projection, and new ways of dealing with the real world ahead.

Distinguished Scholars appearing in Demographic Winter (listed in alphabetical order)

Maria Sophia Aguirre, PhD – Associate Professor of Economics, Catholic University of America

Gary Becker, PhD – Nobel Prize in Economics, Professor of Economics and Sociology, University of Chicago

Allan Carlson, PhD – Distinguished Visiting professor of History, Hillsdale College, International Secretary, World Congress of Families

Joseph Chamie – Former Director, United Nations Population Division, Director of Research, Center for Migration Studies

Matthew Connelly, PhD – Columbia University Associate Professor of History, Author, Fatal Misconception

Janice Crouse, PhD – Senior Fellow, Beverly LaHaye Institute

Harry S. Dent, MBA – Harvard University, Author, The Great Depression Ahead

Alban d’Entremont – Ph.D, Chair, dept of Geography, Professor Economic and Human Geography, University of Navarra

Nicholas Eberstadt, PhD – Economics, Harvard University, Henry Wendt Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Paul R. Ehrlich, PhD – Stanford University Professor of Biology, Author, The Population Bomb

Patrick Fagan – Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, Senior Fellow, Family Research Counsel

Norval Glenn – Ph.D, Ashbel Smith Professor of Sociology, Stiles Professor of American Studies, University of Texas at Austin

Bruce C. Hafen, JD – General Authority, LDS Church, Former Dean, BYU Law School

Kay Hymowitz – William E. Simon Fellow, Manhattan Institute, Contributing Editor, City Journal

Larry Jacobs, MA – Economics, Yale University, MFS Natural Resource Policy and Economics, Vice President, Howard Center

Dr. Jianguo Liu – Rachel Carson Chair in Ecological Sustainability and University Distinguished Professor in the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife as well as Director of the Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability at Michigan State University

Phillip Longman – Schwartz Senior Fellow, New America Foundation, Author, The Empty Cradle

Robert Michael, PhD – Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor in the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago

Victor Medkov – Professor, Department of Sociology, Moscow Lomonosov State University, co-author of Population: An Encyclopedic Dictionary

Jennifer Roback Morse, PhD – Former Professor of Economics, Yale University, Author, Love and Economics, Smart Sex

Steven W. Mosher, PhD – Population Expert & Author, Population Research Institute

Dowell Myers, PhD – Professor of Urban Planning and Demography University of Southern California

Steve Nock – Ph.D, Commonwealth Professor, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Marriage Matters project, University of Virgnia

David Popenoe – Ph.D, Professor of Sociology at Rutgers, Author: War Over The Family

Mark Regnerus – Ph.D, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin

Bill Saunders, JD – Harvard Law School, Senior Counsel, Americans United for Life

Inese Slesere – Member Parliament of Republic of Latvia

Dr. Manfred Spieker – Professor of Sociology, University of Osnabrück

Lola Velarde – President, European Network Institute For Family Policies

Alan Viard – Ph.D, Economics, Harvard University, Resident Scholar American Enterprise Institute

Christine de Marcellus Vollmer – Founder and President Alianza Latinoamericana para la Familia (ALAFA), Member, Pontifical Council for the Family

Linda Waite – Ph.D,Lucy Flower Professor in Urban Sociology, Director, Center on Aging at N.O.R.C.; Co-Director, Alfred P. Sloan Center on Parents, Children and Work; Co-Director, MD/PhD Program in Medicine, the Social Sciences, and Aging;

Bradford Wilcox – Ph.D, Assitant Professor of Sociology, University of Virginia

Hania Zlotnik – Director, United Nations Population Division

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